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Jun 29, 2012
06/12
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they are elected by the voters. do your job. that's what you were elected to do. you know, all these members of congress today, they're foaming, they're excited, you know, let's get back to what really matters in this country and helping people and creating jobs. i think we ought to have a rule in congress, if you haven't met a payroll with at least ten people, you shouldn't be able to be in congress. all this talk going out today is not doing anything to help us compete against china and the others. it's been a big debate. it's been a big piece of legislation. it's a big deal yesterday. it's passed and the supreme court has ruled it constitutional, let's pick it up from there to make sure the country moves forward but all the divisive talk is not helpful to biusiness or anybody. the uncertainty is over, it's the law of the land, so let's make sure the law of the land is in everybody's best interests, we ought to be focused on that now and the president said he's willing to sit down and have the discussion and make sure it's implemented correctly and fairly. >> sp
they are elected by the voters. do your job. that's what you were elected to do. you know, all these members of congress today, they're foaming, they're excited, you know, let's get back to what really matters in this country and helping people and creating jobs. i think we ought to have a rule in congress, if you haven't met a payroll with at least ten people, you shouldn't be able to be in congress. all this talk going out today is not doing anything to help us compete against china and the...
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Apr 23, 2012
04/12
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also concerns about the french election and an earlier than expected election that will be called in the netherlands because they have not been able to agree on austerity merciers. and check point software reporting an adjusted 74 cents a share per earnings, 2 cents better than expected. >> and another deal for you. beam announcing a deal to buy pinnacle vodka for around $600 million in an all cash deal. it's one of the vodka is one of the fastest growing alcohol -- >> and i mean wodka. >> what is wodka? >> it's because you lived in russia. >> i lived in russia in which i gained an immunity to vodka. >> you're the only one who can drink vodka and continue -- >> you're talking about very dangerous drugs. this is serious stuff. >> let's continue our discussion with our guest host. we were just talking about the gold standard and congressman paul identified me as one of those paper people, which is not the worst thing somebody has said about me on tv here. congressman, one of the problems with the gold standard that has been pointed out by economists is the inability of the government t
also concerns about the french election and an earlier than expected election that will be called in the netherlands because they have not been able to agree on austerity merciers. and check point software reporting an adjusted 74 cents a share per earnings, 2 cents better than expected. >> and another deal for you. beam announcing a deal to buy pinnacle vodka for around $600 million in an all cash deal. it's one of the vodka is one of the fastest growing alcohol -- >> and i mean...
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Apr 9, 2012
04/12
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i don't think they're going to be there in the election. and gas prices, high health care premiums and high food prices are such a politically important factor in this election. >> doug, this is john taylor. good to hear you guys debate. >> hi, john. >> i think the recovery is so weak. people can see it's weak, unemployment is above 8%. you'd have to make the case or your opponents have to make the case it has to do with current policy. what do you think about the idea going forward which is the right way to go? not so much the blame for the past. you have two alternative perspectives there. >> could i grab that question? i'm sorry, doug, go ahead. >> i think there's the larger battle of philosophies. we've seen the republican primary focus on very tiny issues. we're now see the large battle emerge between the presumptive nominee mitt romney and the president. very different approaches to economic policy. they want to have that debate and it's important but it going to be focused especially because immediately after the election, the congre
i don't think they're going to be there in the election. and gas prices, high health care premiums and high food prices are such a politically important factor in this election. >> doug, this is john taylor. good to hear you guys debate. >> hi, john. >> i think the recovery is so weak. people can see it's weak, unemployment is above 8%. you'd have to make the case or your opponents have to make the case it has to do with current policy. what do you think about the idea going...
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Aug 13, 2012
08/12
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who had similar views who got elected by under 51% in both elections, even after the '94 and '96 elections, even after the contract with america, paul ryan at age 27 when he was elected 28 when he took office was elected essentially on the same idea as with 57% of the vote and every year thereafter he's won with more than 60% of the vote. i think what people want more than anything isn't just republican or democrat leadership. they just want leadership. that's what mitt romney and now paul ryan bring to the ticket, that's what's been horribly lacking under barack obama and joe biden. there is no leadership. they defer to congress, don't get things done. people four years ago who thought they were getting bill clinton and barack obama had been horriblebally disappointed and that's what romney and ryan brings. >> governor walker, thank you. >>> up next can paul ryan win over mom and pop? vice presidential candidate ryan here on "squawk box" talking about leadership, as we head to break. >> where i come from, in a very swing area, in america, in wisconsin, people want to be talked to like adu
who had similar views who got elected by under 51% in both elections, even after the '94 and '96 elections, even after the contract with america, paul ryan at age 27 when he was elected 28 when he took office was elected essentially on the same idea as with 57% of the vote and every year thereafter he's won with more than 60% of the vote. i think what people want more than anything isn't just republican or democrat leadership. they just want leadership. that's what mitt romney and now paul ryan...
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Aug 24, 2012
08/12
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because they don't want to influence the election which you can't haste both ways. you laid it out better than anybody i've ever heard. >> maybe if you're not there all the time maybe it's easier to look at thing. you got a job, right, mandated to do a job, you get on with the job. it's not about whether the policy is effective. you do the job in the best poway. isn't that what you want from your institutions? maybe i'm old-fashioned. that's the way i was thinking about it. steve raised a good point, we talked about the ebc, what is the job? we got so much now we're waiting for here on the table with not only the fed but ecb meetings and political meetings. political shuffling is under way and we still don't quite know what's going to happen. we think we got a road map or path we're not sure how it will play out. equities today a little bit cautious in europe. not by a huge amount. slim losses for european stocks as we go through this session before the u.s. hope. pretty flat for the ftse 100. half a percent quarter on quarter from minus .7. strux -- construction wa
because they don't want to influence the election which you can't haste both ways. you laid it out better than anybody i've ever heard. >> maybe if you're not there all the time maybe it's easier to look at thing. you got a job, right, mandated to do a job, you get on with the job. it's not about whether the policy is effective. you do the job in the best poway. isn't that what you want from your institutions? maybe i'm old-fashioned. that's the way i was thinking about it. steve raised a...
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Aug 27, 2012
08/12
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if it backfires and the national election, was it worth it? >> there's nothing perfect about bottom-up politics but if you look at the net in 2010 we picked up if you include scott brown a net of seven seats. the tea party had a lot to do with that. the republican establishment was saying that maybe, just maybe they could pick up one seat. so you got to look at everything but the evolution of the tea party allows us to get in early, recruit candidates that have both the ability to run a decent political campaign and the philosophical belief that unites them with conservatism. >> you have the independents in the middle and some say the tea party might hurt the chances of those -- i've had people that sit here on this set saying they're not sure who the real romney is, is he the romney that governed a northeastern state in a moderate way or the extremist that president obama is calling him now. which is he? if there is a perception is he an extremist, can he win? >> we don't count on any politician to do what they say they're going to do unless
if it backfires and the national election, was it worth it? >> there's nothing perfect about bottom-up politics but if you look at the net in 2010 we picked up if you include scott brown a net of seven seats. the tea party had a lot to do with that. the republican establishment was saying that maybe, just maybe they could pick up one seat. so you got to look at everything but the evolution of the tea party allows us to get in early, recruit candidates that have both the ability to run a...
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May 4, 2012
05/12
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>> no. >> i'm an election -- william koeppen. how to diks the te-- let us giv blue chip book award right here. it's a beautiful thing. are you going to put this on your shelf? >> i'll give this to my co-author, john hallier. >> we'll get you two. we'll get you two. this is one of the great classics. congratulations. you'll see i did not put that. i didn't bring up bill ayers. don't say i always go there. hold on, hold on, get him a pen. we can put this on the shelf. thank you go. >> you can thank me for that. >> let go to rovell. the 138th run for the roses set for tomorrow afternoon. it's set for louisville kentucky at churchill downs. to tell us which kentucky -- you know what? i figured you'd have a hat on but look at you with your bad miami vice pastels. >> hey, i listen, this is the pink. this is my outfit. if you buy a horse at yearling, one-year-old, the odds of making it to the kentucky derby is 1 in 700. the owner bought daddy nose best for $35,000, which is about 35,000 less than the average at the annual sale. it's pos
>> no. >> i'm an election -- william koeppen. how to diks the te-- let us giv blue chip book award right here. it's a beautiful thing. are you going to put this on your shelf? >> i'll give this to my co-author, john hallier. >> we'll get you two. we'll get you two. this is one of the great classics. congratulations. you'll see i did not put that. i didn't bring up bill ayers. don't say i always go there. hold on, hold on, get him a pen. we can put this on the shelf....
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May 31, 2012
05/12
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what if the president is re-elected? this scenario you're painting would not be very likely at that point, would it? >> well, the chart looks like the s&p chart. it's come off fairly substantially. the approval ratings are much more favorable for the ch challenger than they are the incumbent. but you're right. i think that the markets could be reasonably okay with president obama winning if -- if the republicans are going to take the senate under the guise that the last two times we did entitlement reform weeks had a divided government, reagan/o'neil, clinton/gingrich. now, i should be clear, between now and the end of july i'm decidedly negative on the markets and don't see any way to get much going on the up side. that's sort of a fall call we're talking about here. >> real quick, end of july, is there a bottom in here now? what do you if you're an investors? >> you stay really defensive in my opinion. we need global growth to stabilize. >> what happens at the end of july for you? >> we will potentially have seen the w
what if the president is re-elected? this scenario you're painting would not be very likely at that point, would it? >> well, the chart looks like the s&p chart. it's come off fairly substantially. the approval ratings are much more favorable for the ch challenger than they are the incumbent. but you're right. i think that the markets could be reasonably okay with president obama winning if -- if the republicans are going to take the senate under the guise that the last two times we...
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Jul 9, 2012
07/12
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that election was a huge election and we picked up 87 freshmen. they came to town saying, you know, with all the spending problems and the debt problems everything has got to be on the table. we have cut since that election going into the 487 billion that we've already cut in this budget and then the sequestration on top of that, another 500, 600 billion, that's a trillion dollars over the next ten years out of defense. i'm just saying that it's excessive. the 487, the chiefs have had a year to work on that. they say they can live with that. it's going to be tough. we'll have big cutbacks. take the navy back to the size it was in world war i. the air force smaller than it's been since interests creation. >> but this is symptomatic. we're going do this. sequestration, it's going be so bad this will force somebody to make a deal. >> see, so defense, the president gave a speech, cut 400 billion more out of defense and the chief saluted and planned and have studied it and said they can live with that. but the 500 to 600 billion in sequestration that w
that election was a huge election and we picked up 87 freshmen. they came to town saying, you know, with all the spending problems and the debt problems everything has got to be on the table. we have cut since that election going into the 487 billion that we've already cut in this budget and then the sequestration on top of that, another 500, 600 billion, that's a trillion dollars over the next ten years out of defense. i'm just saying that it's excessive. the 487, the chiefs have had a year to...
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Jul 18, 2012
07/12
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elected politician that wants to propose a tax? they don't exist. you only do it when you're trying to balance a set of broader set of constraints and when you govern you have to do that. so, if you look at any tax reform proposal out there, that has any patina of bipartisan support, they believe you have to rethink investment income and carried interest. that's lots of different ways to do it. that doesn't raise that much revenue. >> right. >> but you need to figure out again if you're not going to do that, whose taxes will you raise? >> so it's a yes? >> yes, thank you. >> second. again, just lightning round. the somewhat vague -- somewhat vague buffett rule tax to somehow i'm not sure i understand the details or any living person does -- >> it's a simple thing. can i explain it? >> 30 million on a million bucks or more, is that still in your package? >> i think any bipartisanship approach has this principle. we want to improve incentives for business investment. to do that you have to raise effective tax rates on some americans
elected politician that wants to propose a tax? they don't exist. you only do it when you're trying to balance a set of broader set of constraints and when you govern you have to do that. so, if you look at any tax reform proposal out there, that has any patina of bipartisan support, they believe you have to rethink investment income and carried interest. that's lots of different ways to do it. that doesn't raise that much revenue. >> right. >> but you need to figure out again if...
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Dec 24, 2012
12/12
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elections have consequences. i won. it's not a nice tack to the center where i'm going to govern for all of you. are you coming back? >> i'm going to. >> the jacket is coming off, though, right? >> christmas eve and i'm celebrating. as you know, we had the tree going this weekend with the lights on. >> that's so nice. there's one other thing i sought on that thing over the weekend that you brought us that i was going do -- oh,no. did you see mitt romney did not want to run? >> i saw that. that was in the boston globe. that was a great piece worth reading. then he found out how bad things were going on his ipad. >> yeah. but maybe he didn't want to run because there were times i really kind of thought it looked like he didn't want to run. >> yeah, but towards the end, i thought he did. >> he tried hard. thanks. >> okay. >> come over here. >>> in other news, a dock worker strike on the atlantic and coast could be just days away. port operators have been negotiating with the long shoreman association since march. but the t
elections have consequences. i won. it's not a nice tack to the center where i'm going to govern for all of you. are you coming back? >> i'm going to. >> the jacket is coming off, though, right? >> christmas eve and i'm celebrating. as you know, we had the tree going this weekend with the lights on. >> that's so nice. there's one other thing i sought on that thing over the weekend that you brought us that i was going do -- oh,no. did you see mitt romney did not want to...
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Dec 27, 2012
12/12
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in 2010 and then re-elected, a lot of them did get re-elected, and supposedly don't care if they get re-elected again, would you use the debt eagle? once we go through this and the cliff is no longer, would you play hardball with the debt ceiling knowing that you're going to be blamed for that and lose your seat in 2014? >> it would depend on the promises that i made to get elected. what we have is a roomful of people who made promises that probably can't be kept. and they're worried about going home, and giving a speech in a high school auditorium and having somebody stand up in the back and say, hey, you said you wouldn't raise taxes under any circumstances. so that's an impossible promise to keep in today's world. >> you think it still works, though, if this all happens in january? >> sure. >> you think that then they can say they kept the promise? >> sure. i mean, look -- >> you don't think the public sees through that? >> i wish i 0 could say that i thought the public sees through. listen, the market doesn't seem to be too bothered by the fact that it seems at this point to be i
in 2010 and then re-elected, a lot of them did get re-elected, and supposedly don't care if they get re-elected again, would you use the debt eagle? once we go through this and the cliff is no longer, would you play hardball with the debt ceiling knowing that you're going to be blamed for that and lose your seat in 2014? >> it would depend on the promises that i made to get elected. what we have is a roomful of people who made promises that probably can't be kept. and they're worried...
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Aug 29, 2012
08/12
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what do you think the secret is for this election? >> i think this election is do we want to confront our problems as a nation. i think paul ryan, chris christie and mitt romney all speak to that fact, that we have to face up to our problems. if americans want to bury our heads in the sand and listen to the slick, small talk of the president, i guess they'll reelect him. i think america is bigger than that. i think we've gotten to where we are in the country by dealing with the challenges. whether it was getting a man to the moon or making ourselves safe -- >> let's say people talk about 50%, they do pay payroll taxes. let's say you're in the part of the population that is morl on the receiving end of government services. so if someone tells you we don't want to cut any of your services, we're just going to tax the high-nd people, if you get 50% listening to that, that's a problem, tom. >> the fact is, joe, it's a great line on a campaign trail. but the fact of the matter is if you add up all the so-called buffett tax increases on the
what do you think the secret is for this election? >> i think this election is do we want to confront our problems as a nation. i think paul ryan, chris christie and mitt romney all speak to that fact, that we have to face up to our problems. if americans want to bury our heads in the sand and listen to the slick, small talk of the president, i guess they'll reelect him. i think america is bigger than that. i think we've gotten to where we are in the country by dealing with the...
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Apr 18, 2012
04/12
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it's the the election. always the the election. it's always an the election year. >> chris, i want to talk about your book because it's an excellent read. if we can get you to weigh in on what conrad said. this has been a long debate back and forth trying to figure out the buffett rule, what you make of that, the tax changes, simpson-bowles. what's your take? >> i think simpson-bowles was a great opportunity for the president. i think he may have missed it. there are elements woe have had to pay for like the very thing that we're arguing about now, fairness. according to simpson-bowles they were going to equalize the tax rates between earned income and cap kings and clearly the republicans weren't going to back that so i think the president felt he was being snookered. if he supported that they wouldn't have supported that so it wasn't going to go anywhere. i would argue you have to go painful territory, as joe's interview was getting there, you have to go to painful territory from both sides. you won't get any budget cuts through,
it's the the election. always the the election. it's always an the election year. >> chris, i want to talk about your book because it's an excellent read. if we can get you to weigh in on what conrad said. this has been a long debate back and forth trying to figure out the buffett rule, what you make of that, the tax changes, simpson-bowles. what's your take? >> i think simpson-bowles was a great opportunity for the president. i think he may have missed it. there are elements woe...
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Jun 1, 2012
06/12
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no. >> you better hope we get to 7.8 before the election. if you don't get to 7.8 before the election, it was up above 7.8 the entire time you were president. >> what people vote on is the conditions in their own lives. right? so it they know whether they're making money. whether they can pay their bills. >> so we don't need to report the jobs numbers any more because nobody pays attention to them? >> no, it is an indication of what people will be feeling in their real lives, but if they put out a number today said and it's 3%, do you think the whole country would like not get it? >> there's a negative and positive feedback. >> hold on. when the jobs numbers were going up, all of a sudden when things were going great just a couple months ago, everything's mood was better. and then all of a sudden -- >> that's because it's a reflection of actual conditions. but if you monkeyed around with the numbers on try to make numbers look better than people actual lives were respect you wouldn't get any votes from it. >> they're told how they feel and n
no. >> you better hope we get to 7.8 before the election. if you don't get to 7.8 before the election, it was up above 7.8 the entire time you were president. >> what people vote on is the conditions in their own lives. right? so it they know whether they're making money. whether they can pay their bills. >> so we don't need to report the jobs numbers any more because nobody pays attention to them? >> no, it is an indication of what people will be feeling in their real...
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Aug 30, 2012
08/12
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which side of the election would they be taking? that may take time propping up the economy if qe3 is out there. the more immediate reaction might be increase in gas prices and that's something americans vote on, too. >> i fully believe that people are getting sick of paying high prices for gas. that will be the overriding thing and if we do qe3, there's one it could be perceived as being too political and have a negative effect and it could also underline the fact that growth is not where we want it to be and things are sluggish. even if it initially was like wow, this is political, it could have the negative effect. >> i guess the other thing is what's the fed supposed to do? they're supposed to be apolitical. should they pay attention to the fact there's this election taking place? if you want to be apolitical, you tune out the entire idea, this is what we're supposed to do as jobs. this is the numbers and how we step in. >> to me it seems impossible to be completely apolitical when one side is saying perhaps we'll fire all you g
which side of the election would they be taking? that may take time propping up the economy if qe3 is out there. the more immediate reaction might be increase in gas prices and that's something americans vote on, too. >> i fully believe that people are getting sick of paying high prices for gas. that will be the overriding thing and if we do qe3, there's one it could be perceived as being too political and have a negative effect and it could also underline the fact that growth is not...
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Jul 17, 2012
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. >> not until after the election. he'll stick to his guns, blah, blah, blah, over 250, and then he'll appease his base. in the meantime neither party -- the democrats recently said all right, we'll let you take the economy down. unless you let us raise taxes on 250 and above we'll let the fiscal cliff happen so it's brinksmanship again but the rest of us are at 8.2% unemployment, not the rest of us but there are a lot of people that are at 8.2%. they should do that, shouldn't they? >> joe, this game of chicken we saw it last year during the debt ceiling debate and saw the consequences of of that and seeing it again today. the game of chicken is dangerous for the economy because people plan on the basis of the future so businesses are going to stop investing. you've seen what the consumer is doing. the consumer is retrenching and the rest of the world is slowing. we are in the midst of a synchronized slowdown so this game of chicken may make sense on both sides politically, but certainly doesn't make it for the economy
. >> not until after the election. he'll stick to his guns, blah, blah, blah, over 250, and then he'll appease his base. in the meantime neither party -- the democrats recently said all right, we'll let you take the economy down. unless you let us raise taxes on 250 and above we'll let the fiscal cliff happen so it's brinksmanship again but the rest of us are at 8.2% unemployment, not the rest of us but there are a lot of people that are at 8.2%. they should do that, shouldn't they?...
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Jul 2, 2012
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the economy will dominate the election. i do think romney gets energy out of the decision because he can go to conservatives and republicans and independents and say you don't like obamacare and the polls show us especially white voters don't like it, and like in the wall street journal poll last week, 20% of whites said obamacare was a good idea and 50% a bad idea. much more popular among hispanics and african-americans -- >> if romney can connect the high unemployment rate to obamacare, then that gives him even more of a boost, don't you think? >> that's a stretch, but yes -- >> why is it a stretch? we have had people repeatedly come up and say the small businesses are not hiring because the cost has gone up dramatically -- >> you go from 49 employees to 50 and 51, your cost explode as a small business due to obamacare. the other thing that gets me is i am still hearing -- >> i think the evidence that obamacare has contributed to high unemployment is quite weak. >> it may have certainly slowed job growth. >> something did
the economy will dominate the election. i do think romney gets energy out of the decision because he can go to conservatives and republicans and independents and say you don't like obamacare and the polls show us especially white voters don't like it, and like in the wall street journal poll last week, 20% of whites said obamacare was a good idea and 50% a bad idea. much more popular among hispanics and african-americans -- >> if romney can connect the high unemployment rate to obamacare,...
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Oct 15, 2012
10/12
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this election is going to be just like 2010, all about jobs. whoever the floridians believe is going to get the economy going that's who they're voting for. that's how i won. i think romney right now, as you could see in the debate. >> is he leading in florida? >> yes. >> by? >> i'd be shocked if it's -- >> less than seven but more than one. >> it's going to be just like my race. people, they either want a job or they want to get it, they need a job or want to keep their job. look, we've done really well, the biggest drop in unemployment, consumer confidence up five-year high, unemployment has dropped, the number of people in unemployment dropped 40%, tourism is up, 90 million people come in tourism, exports are up, home prices are up, construction is up, so we're headed in the right direction but it's still about jobs. >> isn't that a reason for people to feel good about how things are going thinking okay we'll stick with what's going to this point and granted florida may be in a different position than the rest of the country. >> i think part
this election is going to be just like 2010, all about jobs. whoever the floridians believe is going to get the economy going that's who they're voting for. that's how i won. i think romney right now, as you could see in the debate. >> is he leading in florida? >> yes. >> by? >> i'd be shocked if it's -- >> less than seven but more than one. >> it's going to be just like my race. people, they either want a job or they want to get it, they need a job or want...
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Apr 16, 2012
04/12
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last i checked obama was elected in 2008. and the federal tax credit of $7,500 was instituted under the bush administration. so it bothers me when conservative news outlets don't get their facts straight. >> i mean, you've seen the headlines. gm estimated they've sold 6,000 volts so far. that means the subsidy is 250,000 per volt. that's not the amount of government money that went in to develop it? >> absolutely not. >> okay. >> joe -- >> go ahead. >> you're looking at this problem from a pure market perspective and the reality is there is no free market for oil. the market for oil is controlled by a cartel, opec. they own 80% to 90% of the reserves in the world. they produce about 42%. last year the united states sent $328 billion offshore to buy imported petroleum the cost for the average family went up from $1,700 in 2001 to $4,000 last year. we spent 60% of our balance of payments on imported petroleum. >> this is in michigan, center for public policy that said that there were 18 different government programs, rebates, g
last i checked obama was elected in 2008. and the federal tax credit of $7,500 was instituted under the bush administration. so it bothers me when conservative news outlets don't get their facts straight. >> i mean, you've seen the headlines. gm estimated they've sold 6,000 volts so far. that means the subsidy is 250,000 per volt. that's not the amount of government money that went in to develop it? >> absolutely not. >> okay. >> joe -- >> go ahead. >> you're...
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Mar 13, 2012
03/12
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election. so volatility is inherent in this election and it's one of the reasons -- we were just talking about mitt romney in the south and rick santorum and newt gingrich. why does newt gingrich want to stay in this race even though it looks like he's a no-hope candidate? because of all the voluatility n this election cycle. why does mitt romney have a chance to win these deep south states when people thought he had no shot? we have a volatile election season and nobody can predict with any confidence what will happen one week to the next. >> what's the reason for the rising disapproval rate, or the dropping approval rate, i guess i should say? >> for obama? >> yeah. >> most people are attributing it to gas prices and -- honestly, i don't know. i was very surprised by that because just a week ago we had an nbc/"wall street journal" -- i think we had him at 49. >> right, right. >> for as well as he's doing his job it makes no sense to you. >> you were surprised, too, joe. >> i'll tell you the o
election. so volatility is inherent in this election and it's one of the reasons -- we were just talking about mitt romney in the south and rick santorum and newt gingrich. why does newt gingrich want to stay in this race even though it looks like he's a no-hope candidate? because of all the voluatility n this election cycle. why does mitt romney have a chance to win these deep south states when people thought he had no shot? we have a volatile election season and nobody can predict with any...
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Jun 28, 2012
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you got an election. all these things make the economy more uncertain, it makes consumer confidence waiver a little bit and if you're not going to have somebody buying your product you won't start. >> when you think about small business formation, start up, at least in my experience, rare to talk to an entrepreneur who says i'm not sure i'm going into this business because i don't cho what the taxes will be next year. am i think about this incorrectly. >> no. when you look at the top five that we talked about that's impacting more existing businesses and already they expand or not. but the new business is definitely confidence, whether somebody will buy their product that's the biggest thing and taxes would be a little bit further down the list. they have to have profits to worry about the taxes. i think the overall regulatory environment is a big concern. >> this is brian sullivan, if the supreme court strikes down all or part of obamacare which small companies have told us that is one of the big regulat
you got an election. all these things make the economy more uncertain, it makes consumer confidence waiver a little bit and if you're not going to have somebody buying your product you won't start. >> when you think about small business formation, start up, at least in my experience, rare to talk to an entrepreneur who says i'm not sure i'm going into this business because i don't cho what the taxes will be next year. am i think about this incorrectly. >> no. when you look at the...
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Apr 10, 2012
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so when it after an election not after an election? if you're never going to do it for three years, at least ryan is stepping forward. >> let's get to him. he's here. leading policy maker teaming up with george bush institute to target taxes in america, congressman paul ryan, budget committee chairman, senior member of the house ways and means committee. i was looking for bruises. you are the current pinata of the left and the right. we just had trump on. trump is upset that you didn't wait till after the election to give the american people some of -- i think we have -- will you listen to this, congressman? here he is just a couple minutes ago. >> i like paul ryan and i'm not knocking anything about his plan. i'm just saying the timing of this plan is potentially catastrophic for the republicans. >> so donald is cynical but maybe it is a realistic viewpoint. obama can lay in the weeds with a budget that got zero votes from either side and doesn't tell the american people any hard choices they have to make. so you tell them and grandma
so when it after an election not after an election? if you're never going to do it for three years, at least ryan is stepping forward. >> let's get to him. he's here. leading policy maker teaming up with george bush institute to target taxes in america, congressman paul ryan, budget committee chairman, senior member of the house ways and means committee. i was looking for bruises. you are the current pinata of the left and the right. we just had trump on. trump is upset that you didn't...
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Mar 27, 2012
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so the next election -- one day after the election you have to start because something has to be done. but it certainly shouldn't be started right now. >> but do you think we can get back -- things seem so bitter right now. i know it probably does seem this way every election cycle, but even before we really got into the real running on this time around it seemed like people were kind of unwilling to reach across the aisle. do you think that we can get that back? maybe we ask rick scott that as well. >> the public is not willing to have any tax increases. can you not get elected anywhere in this country by say uruguay going to raise taxes. any program that says i'm going to raise your taxes to balance the budget still doesn't work. >> so you agree with donald, that you can't talk about this right now? >> first off, they shouldn't being doing it. we should be reducing our taxes. we've got to reduce the size of government -- >> that's right. >> in florida we had to raise the state debt and i walked in with a $4 billion deficit. you've got to do the same at the federal level. you have to
so the next election -- one day after the election you have to start because something has to be done. but it certainly shouldn't be started right now. >> but do you think we can get back -- things seem so bitter right now. i know it probably does seem this way every election cycle, but even before we really got into the real running on this time around it seemed like people were kind of unwilling to reach across the aisle. do you think that we can get that back? maybe we ask rick scott...
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Dec 26, 2012
12/12
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not about the election. the election is over. it's about spending cuts, really what 2010 was about. i think that's where the negotiations go in the next couple of days. >> you think about the polling and how this polls and issues david was talking about and common ground and who gets blame going over the fiscal cliff, how do you see it? >> i think that's the wrong question to ask. we're not in a political season. we either need the country to function or we don't. >> we will be. in 12 months from now, we'll be right back it an again. whatever happens over the next three weeks will be part of some campaign 12 months from now. >> i would rather worry about principle than politics and the republican party has very few principles left. one not to raise tax and the other extract serious spending cuts. you have a bunch of democrats we lost the whole point, you have the democratic party for 10 years, they have been willing to go for tax cuts and they voted for that. >> that's factually wrong. in any time you have an individual -- they didn't vote for tax cuts under bush and your president
not about the election. the election is over. it's about spending cuts, really what 2010 was about. i think that's where the negotiations go in the next couple of days. >> you think about the polling and how this polls and issues david was talking about and common ground and who gets blame going over the fiscal cliff, how do you see it? >> i think that's the wrong question to ask. we're not in a political season. we either need the country to function or we don't. >> we will...
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Mar 7, 2012
03/12
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he won 54% of the delegates. 54% in the general election would be land slide obviously. >> but, john, if you look what's happened. e we thought is there a situation where he's cleaning up? this doesn't look like anyone got knocked out of the race. >> that's right. no one has gotten knocked out of the race. i think we've known from the beginning mitt romney is the only guy with the infrastructure, the campaign, the credibility to make it to the nomination that. was true at the beginning, it's true now. he is highly likely to be the republican nominee. however, unless you win convincingly enough to persuade the -- your rivals and to persuade arrives to get out of the race, rick santorum wins oklahoma and tennessee. now we go to kansas, blaeralaba mississippi. he's got the rationale and ability to raise more money and go fight in those places. he's got to bid a little more before we wrap up this. >> i was reading this. they go through the numbers, the math. it seems like it's almost pock for santorum or gingrich to come back. >> yes, extremely difficult. i was talking yesterday to one of
he won 54% of the delegates. 54% in the general election would be land slide obviously. >> but, john, if you look what's happened. e we thought is there a situation where he's cleaning up? this doesn't look like anyone got knocked out of the race. >> that's right. no one has gotten knocked out of the race. i think we've known from the beginning mitt romney is the only guy with the infrastructure, the campaign, the credibility to make it to the nomination that. was true at the...
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Nov 8, 2012
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we knew obama was going to be elected so the market would have already been down. do you think there was anything -- this is a how do you do, to a second term, isn't it, barry? >> absolutely it is. i got asked that question yesterday. attributing it to europe and -- >> i get in trouble for asking it. >> i burst out laughing about it. this was all about -- >> the cliff. >> it's not just the cliff. the election was a potential catalyst to start the process to solve the tax question, debt sustainability. you looked at the number of catalysts out there, the election was potentially going to be one of those that could put the government in a position where they'd be, you know, willing to take this on. >> you think people were still holding out hope that romney was going to get elected, wouldn't be obama care, they were holding out for that? >> there is two relevant elections i think that were similar in the campaigns that were run. 1948 and 1980. in 1948 going into truman's re-election, the market was falling throughout the entire fall. it bounced a little bit in octobe
we knew obama was going to be elected so the market would have already been down. do you think there was anything -- this is a how do you do, to a second term, isn't it, barry? >> absolutely it is. i got asked that question yesterday. attributing it to europe and -- >> i get in trouble for asking it. >> i burst out laughing about it. this was all about -- >> the cliff. >> it's not just the cliff. the election was a potential catalyst to start the process to solve...
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Nov 1, 2012
11/12
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we did not cancel, delay the election. it was a lot of work because it was also in the primary where we did have a slight delay i think in the primary race but the general election went on without a hitch. it just required a massive amount of work by all elements of government. >> well, can you come up here? >> you got good governors up there. you know, watching governor christie in action on tv, it's clear he's all in and i've seen similar in mayor bloomberg and governor cuomo. people step up. this is what leadership's all about, and you can't do this from washington. i hear people talk about how kind of demanding the president do something. the president did what he did yesterday. that's about the extent to which he can play a role, and that's to be consoler-in-chief and make sure the federal government doesn't screw up, i guess, but basically this is a local and state responsibility. the federal government can provide financial support. >> governor, we've been just talking about the hurricane deductible, apparently the
we did not cancel, delay the election. it was a lot of work because it was also in the primary where we did have a slight delay i think in the primary race but the general election went on without a hitch. it just required a massive amount of work by all elements of government. >> well, can you come up here? >> you got good governors up there. you know, watching governor christie in action on tv, it's clear he's all in and i've seen similar in mayor bloomberg and governor cuomo....
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Apr 17, 2012
04/12
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that has never worked in past elections. do you think it will work for the other side to take that tact? >> i think class warfare doesn't work. the president of the united states should be above that and instead of trying to have people fight over a slice of a shrinking pie for a pie that stays the same, he should be leading the charge with optimism and hope and confidence about growing the pie. he can't do that. he's never been in the private sector, he doesn't respect it, he doesn't understand it and u he uses it as a red herring. i agree with your -- mitt romney's strength -- >> no, but can the campaign get comfortable? the campaign, in my view, has been a little bit shy about that. i wouldn't say that they're ashamed of it but i think that they're affected by what they hear from the other side. i would say say it loud and say it proud. and i don't know. you're on the campaign. other times i've said things to to you try and give him some tips. not to try and help him but just i'm watching an an objective observer and sayi
that has never worked in past elections. do you think it will work for the other side to take that tact? >> i think class warfare doesn't work. the president of the united states should be above that and instead of trying to have people fight over a slice of a shrinking pie for a pie that stays the same, he should be leading the charge with optimism and hope and confidence about growing the pie. he can't do that. he's never been in the private sector, he doesn't respect it, he doesn't...
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Apr 5, 2012
04/12
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has elections. there's a referendum. this will push the market. >> maybe a bit lower in q3 down to 124. i think liquidity helped lift it in the third quarter. >> jim steele, let just talk gold. what is next in your view, 1,800 or 1,500? >> i think we might see a quick break of 1,600 but i don't think we'll get as low as 1,500. the anticipation of qe3 or of additional monetary easing, in fact, has been -- is being rung out of the market right now from february 29th with bernanke's first comments to congress right through the f 1c minutes and i think there will be a limit of how much more of a premium is based into the gold market. gold is central to monetary policy but it really bled out a lot of anticipation of additional easing. and the fact that monetary policy is still accommodative will support the market. as we break that 1,600 level, we get to a point where i think it's going to be attractive for cost effective buyers. >> we just looked at that long-term chart. it still looks, what is it, hype
has elections. there's a referendum. this will push the market. >> maybe a bit lower in q3 down to 124. i think liquidity helped lift it in the third quarter. >> jim steele, let just talk gold. what is next in your view, 1,800 or 1,500? >> i think we might see a quick break of 1,600 but i don't think we'll get as low as 1,500. the anticipation of qe3 or of additional monetary easing, in fact, has been -- is being rung out of the market right now from february 29th with...
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Feb 29, 2012
02/12
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have to make some changes. >> after the election. >> nothing is going to happen before the election. everybody is dug in with their positions, they want them to be crystal clear to the voters. after the election, i think we'll see compromise. >> so you think we ought to reform taxes on both the individual and corporate level? that's what we need? >> that's certainly what i've been saying for years and it's never been more true than it is today. >> what do you make of the president's plan to go to 28% and to go to 25 on manufacturing? is that good start? or just -- political move before the election? >> well taken by itself, it's a move in the right direction. the trouble is, that he has combined it with penalizing companies that produce abroad. that are part of multinational u.s. corporations, that create jobs in the united states by having subsidiaries abroad. that market their products. so he just didn't get the message that every other country but the united states has what's called a territorial tax system for its multiple national corporations. which gives them a real advantage
have to make some changes. >> after the election. >> nothing is going to happen before the election. everybody is dug in with their positions, they want them to be crystal clear to the voters. after the election, i think we'll see compromise. >> so you think we ought to reform taxes on both the individual and corporate level? that's what we need? >> that's certainly what i've been saying for years and it's never been more true than it is today. >> what do you make...
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Nov 26, 2012
11/12
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in the catolca catalonia win the regional elections. the stock market reacted a little bit, it would have been worse if the leader of the separatist movement had done better. let's move on to what i think is the most interesting story and could definitely affect a lot of investors who watch cnbc, argentina. during all the retail hubaloo, a federal judge in new york ordered argentina to pay nml securities $1.5 billion. he has ordered this many times before. what is different is the remedy. there are two things that investors need to know. if you are invested in an emerging market hedge fund you should be worried about whether or not argentina will pay a gdp warrant december 15th. they very well may not and most indexes when it comes to the emerging markets contain argentinean debt. is it going to be systemic if they don't pay it? no, but you could be affected. the second thing is the remedy that the judge has imposed. this is very interesting. he knows argentina will never pay so now what he said is i don't care if argentina doesn't pay.
in the catolca catalonia win the regional elections. the stock market reacted a little bit, it would have been worse if the leader of the separatist movement had done better. let's move on to what i think is the most interesting story and could definitely affect a lot of investors who watch cnbc, argentina. during all the retail hubaloo, a federal judge in new york ordered argentina to pay nml securities $1.5 billion. he has ordered this many times before. what is different is the remedy. there...
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Apr 27, 2012
04/12
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look, i think the election is a little bit different this year. i think both sides start out with about 47% of the vote. you see a very, very tight presidential election. it's going to come down to the debates. once again it's going to come down to who wins florida, who wins ohio. you answer those questions, you know who the next question is going to be. >> your view of governor palin after all is said and done, obviously you never would have picked her initially. so was it your fault she wasn't vetted better. >> partly my fault. i was deeply involved in what turned out to be a deeply dysfunctional process. if i knew then what i knew now i would have tied myself to the bumper of senator mccain's car to prevent him from leaving the arizona compound to announce her. a mistake was made. i've talked about it pretty extensively. the result was someone who was manifestly not prepared to be president of the united states was put on the ticket. i think there's important lessons to be learned from that. i think there's important lessons to be learned about
look, i think the election is a little bit different this year. i think both sides start out with about 47% of the vote. you see a very, very tight presidential election. it's going to come down to the debates. once again it's going to come down to who wins florida, who wins ohio. you answer those questions, you know who the next question is going to be. >> your view of governor palin after all is said and done, obviously you never would have picked her initially. so was it your fault she...
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Mar 6, 2012
03/12
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the answer is can you put together a new congress if he is re-elected or can mitt romney if he's elected put something that will throw in tax reform like simpson/bowles? >> let's sure hope so, because i think there's a real possibility here that unless -- unless we can configure that kind of package we're going to have a rolling set of two- or three- or four-month debt limit extensions through 2013 and that would create anxiety and uncertainty that no one needs. we absolutely need a big deal to come together and, again, with the congress of tw or three decades ago it would have been virtually guaranteed, today given there's no middle, it's much harder but necessary. >> this is what is going to cause the drama early next year. >> i want to pin john down on how high you would like marginal rates to go. 26% is simpson/bowles, let's say you got rid of the deductions and the 00 we400 were paying 26. will that satisfy the center for american progress or do you have to get to the clinton rates? >> i think you can get lower, 26% is actually too low and i don't think simpson/bowles really conclud
the answer is can you put together a new congress if he is re-elected or can mitt romney if he's elected put something that will throw in tax reform like simpson/bowles? >> let's sure hope so, because i think there's a real possibility here that unless -- unless we can configure that kind of package we're going to have a rolling set of two- or three- or four-month debt limit extensions through 2013 and that would create anxiety and uncertainty that no one needs. we absolutely need a big...
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Jul 11, 2012
07/12
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. >> yes, dramatic, important music like we use when we do election coverage. ♪ >> no, no, that's too -- >> that's -- there's like space odyssey. >> that is star wars -- no, the penguins music. that's right. >> i thought it was star wars? when the stormtroopers come in. >> who wrote this? who came up with this name? i've got to know. who did? oops. >> oh, becky came up with it. >> never mind. >> it's a great name. >> i thought it was a producer. keep going. making headlines, fitch affirming aaa credit rating on the united states and maintaining a negative outlook. the firm cites a diversified and wealthy economy undermined by the government's inability to agree on deficit reduction measures. what you're alluding to with that great title. i like it now. >>> china vehicle sales raising 9 .9 % this month. automakers ship nearly 1.6 million passenger cars, trucks and buss in china. >> that's a big number but not as big as it used to be. >> and the buses aren't taking any people to those empty apartment buildings, no. those are -- >> those wind mills that connect to nothing and provide ene
. >> yes, dramatic, important music like we use when we do election coverage. ♪ >> no, no, that's too -- >> that's -- there's like space odyssey. >> that is star wars -- no, the penguins music. that's right. >> i thought it was star wars? when the stormtroopers come in. >> who wrote this? who came up with this name? i've got to know. who did? oops. >> oh, becky came up with it. >> never mind. >> it's a great name. >> i thought it was...
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Aug 22, 2012
08/12
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>> no qe in september. >> after the election? >> after the election. >> thanks for coming in. >>> i guess i'm going to read the last bit here. tomorrow we tap into the "squawk" reserve. st. louis fed president james bullard, he'll be on the set for two hours. tomorrow starting at 7 a.m. eastern time. >>> let's get a quick look at the trading day ahead. for that we head to the cme group in chicago. ira harris is standing by. we had this nice run, a little pull back yesterday. we're virtually flat right now. where do we go today? >> probably sideways. there's not going to be much. you were having this great discussion with david greenlaw, which was great. we're going to wait for jackson hole. anybody who thinks bernanke is going to give you something in jackson hole believes in jonestown drinks kool-aid. bernanke is not going to move here. i think it goes back to chuck schumer throwing down the gauntlet at bernanke when he said you're the only game in town, get to work. i think bernanke's view is, huh-uh, we've done what we can, it
>> no qe in september. >> after the election? >> after the election. >> thanks for coming in. >>> i guess i'm going to read the last bit here. tomorrow we tap into the "squawk" reserve. st. louis fed president james bullard, he'll be on the set for two hours. tomorrow starting at 7 a.m. eastern time. >>> let's get a quick look at the trading day ahead. for that we head to the cme group in chicago. ira harris is standing by. we had this nice...
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Mar 14, 2012
03/12
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the time is now to make sure, to make sure that we have the best chance to win this election. >> john harwood is our chief washington correspondent, and, john, well, this puts things up in question once again. what do we think after yesterday's primaries? >> becky, this was the result that rick santorum was hoping for, and this was the result mitt romney didn't want to happen. why? because not only did romney not win either state, santorum won both of them, gingrich didn't, and because he didn't, even if he doesn't drop out and there would be pressure on him from some conservatives to do that, he's going be a diminishing force in the race, and what that means is rick santorum moves closer. he's not there yet. but he moves closer to a straight one-on-one matchup with mitt romney. he's going go to missouri this weekend where they have caucuses. he did very well this the beauty contest a while ago. and then he goes to the state of illinois, which is interesting because it would be the first race in a midwestern state where gingrich has clearly been downgraded in major way, and if rick sa
the time is now to make sure, to make sure that we have the best chance to win this election. >> john harwood is our chief washington correspondent, and, john, well, this puts things up in question once again. what do we think after yesterday's primaries? >> becky, this was the result that rick santorum was hoping for, and this was the result mitt romney didn't want to happen. why? because not only did romney not win either state, santorum won both of them, gingrich didn't, and...
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Jun 25, 2012
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>> and then at that point we could be set for a rally through the elections. in 1980 or 2010 type mode, because at that point i would think the probability of a whole new government goes up substantially and if you look at how the markets behaved in 1980, they rallied through some horrific macro economic circumstances. >> what about a fiscal cliff? >> correct, that's the process we're going through pricing that right now. if we go down to 1 00, when i talk about the market pricing and recession risk that will be the number one thing that's cited is the fiscal life cliff is going to fish us off the cliff, the market goes down enough you take earnings estimates down enough, then you get the self-correcting mechanism which is not monetary policy n this case it's an improved public policy outlook with the idea we'll get a new government that can solve our problems. >> most people should take their money out of the market, wait for this correction if you will to happen and jump back in but market timing seize to be a fool'ser rand. >> i understand that. we've been
>> and then at that point we could be set for a rally through the elections. in 1980 or 2010 type mode, because at that point i would think the probability of a whole new government goes up substantially and if you look at how the markets behaved in 1980, they rallied through some horrific macro economic circumstances. >> what about a fiscal cliff? >> correct, that's the process we're going through pricing that right now. if we go down to 1 00, when i talk about the market...
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Jul 16, 2012
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season because congress is up for election every two years. how do you break out of that cycle to not worry about the next election? >> we can't wait that long. we've got to do it right after this election, either in the lame duck or very early in the next session, and i think in the lame duck we have to lay the framework. the framework is no mystery. everybody who has worked on this problem has come up with the same thing, and so everybody knows what the parameters are. it's just a question of saying, let's hold hands and jump together. >> alice, i agree that the framework is well-known. it's a math problem. everything has to be on the table and we have to act. while our fiscal problem is our biggest challenge, let's assume that we make progress on the fiscal issue. let's assume we get a grand bargain in 2013 that's along the lines of simpson-bowles, domenici-rivlin, et cetera. do we need to consider whether or not the fed ought to have a dual mandate? should the fed be concerned with short term unemployment or has that politicized the fed? >
season because congress is up for election every two years. how do you break out of that cycle to not worry about the next election? >> we can't wait that long. we've got to do it right after this election, either in the lame duck or very early in the next session, and i think in the lame duck we have to lay the framework. the framework is no mystery. everybody who has worked on this problem has come up with the same thing, and so everybody knows what the parameters are. it's just a...
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Aug 28, 2012
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for me, you know, every election, the politician who's in it thinks it's the election of all time. natural narcissism of politicians but isn't this really a huge election for direction and definition of the country? if president obama's re-elected we go down the path of the -- well, dependency state, the social welfare model of europe. if mitt romney's elected, we head down the path of -- >> no, no, no. there's no evidence of that, right, john? >> american exceptionalism. that's a bit of an exaggeration. but the individual over the state. this is going to lock us in place for a long time. how this election comes out, don't you think? this is not an election between -- it is not like bill clinton who's a pragmatist and george bush when's confronted with a terrorist event that changed the culture and changed his presidency. this is two individuals who are going to simply define our country for a long time because they have definite ways of the country to approach governing. >> reporter: you know, in theory that's true. and i understand the basis for what you're saying. i'm a little w
for me, you know, every election, the politician who's in it thinks it's the election of all time. natural narcissism of politicians but isn't this really a huge election for direction and definition of the country? if president obama's re-elected we go down the path of the -- well, dependency state, the social welfare model of europe. if mitt romney's elected, we head down the path of -- >> no, no, no. there's no evidence of that, right, john? >> american exceptionalism. that's a...
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May 2, 2012
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the french elections. what happened in europe. >> thanks, becky. >> still to come, the "squawk box" book club come the "squawk box" book club hands out another blue chip book awards. some more classics as we begin this big extravaganza. today's authors have written timeless classics that every business lead ear and investor needs in their library. at 8:30 a.m. eastern, author of "the wisdom of crowds," he's pretty good. he's going to become a "squawk" bookworm. >> coming up. kick start your engines. joe, becky and andrew are off to the races. they are catching up with the ceo of ferrari north america. . . [ male announcer ] the inspiring story of how a shipping giant can befriend a forest may seem like the stuff of fairy tales. but if you take away the faces on the trees... take away the pixie dust. take away the singing animals, and the storybook narrator... [ man ] you're left with more electric trucks. more recycled shipping materials... and a growing number of lower emissions planes... which still make
the french elections. what happened in europe. >> thanks, becky. >> still to come, the "squawk box" book club come the "squawk box" book club hands out another blue chip book awards. some more classics as we begin this big extravaganza. today's authors have written timeless classics that every business lead ear and investor needs in their library. at 8:30 a.m. eastern, author of "the wisdom of crowds," he's pretty good. he's going to become a...
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there's a lot of talk about what happens in france with the elections and what not? >> i think what's going on in places like france and a lot of talk about the netherlands, this is going to take multiple years to work through. you're coming out of this major credit pop and deleveraging going on throughout these kwi km -- economies. it's a multi-year session with austerity and the need to keep the economies from going over the edge in the recession. so there's going to be a give and take. it's going to remain a challenge for the global economy. all the discussion of greece last summer, would the european step up? and they stepped up with a big way with liquidity and walking this line between orstairity and recession and i think half a step forward, half a step back but a long deleveraging process. >> robert, you look at that and that's a more optimistic view. greg' right, it's better than things like six months ago and yet europe hit a stall smeed. >> i think we'll continue to muddle along. while low rates are is negative for savers, it's a benefit for companies. com
there's a lot of talk about what happens in france with the elections and what not? >> i think what's going on in places like france and a lot of talk about the netherlands, this is going to take multiple years to work through. you're coming out of this major credit pop and deleveraging going on throughout these kwi km -- economies. it's a multi-year session with austerity and the need to keep the economies from going over the edge in the recession. so there's going to be a give and take....
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they said this before the election. they were reckoning whoever won the presidency, you would see half of the fiscal cliff occurring, so 2%, 2.5% of gdp tightened whoever won. and that's a pretty consensus view. >> both tony and jared have told us that they think we're going over the fiscal cliff. i guess it's just a question of how long we stay in it. the fiscal bungee jump. >> it's a matter of how long. he made a good point, which is that there is fiscal contraction baked into the cake already. it's already ongoing. obviously the recovery act has faded. it's $120 billion next year of fiscal contraction. >> i've been presuming it's going to go away. i mean, the payroll takts will go -- tax will go away and certainly now are baked in. >> replacing the payroll tax holiday with something like it. that's not necessarily totally off the table. >> let's bring in a market reaction to this as well. ben is standing by. how are the markets baking in any assumptions on this? >> right now, as your other analysts are saying, it see
they said this before the election. they were reckoning whoever won the presidency, you would see half of the fiscal cliff occurring, so 2%, 2.5% of gdp tightened whoever won. and that's a pretty consensus view. >> both tony and jared have told us that they think we're going over the fiscal cliff. i guess it's just a question of how long we stay in it. the fiscal bungee jump. >> it's a matter of how long. he made a good point, which is that there is fiscal contraction baked into the...
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this election is going to be the first social media election. they are not going to say we need $100 million so let's put a huge ad on the home page because that ruins the business. if they are to mess up with the consumer experience and plaster myspace type ads everywhere, it turns into my dls spaand they a, very smart people. >> i like the idea that they have taken these companies. >> to develop that -- >> yes, absolutely, to develop the model and my guess is facebook has a greater assurance in their mind of what the next three or four quarters are going to look like than a lot of the other company cans going public. zuckerberg was very smart in holding back. the demand is going to be insatiable. >> i've been looking for a desk chair. now everywhere i go online for some reason there is a desk book ad. are people going to find that acceptable? >> so retargeting, and what you're talking about is retargeting. so you visit a website. they don't know that you're andrew ross sorkin. they would care but they know -- you know, somebody was there. your
this election is going to be the first social media election. they are not going to say we need $100 million so let's put a huge ad on the home page because that ruins the business. if they are to mess up with the consumer experience and plaster myspace type ads everywhere, it turns into my dls spaand they a, very smart people. >> i like the idea that they have taken these companies. >> to develop that -- >> yes, absolutely, to develop the model and my guess is facebook has a...
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. >> obama's rates have soared likely that he gets re-elected. part of that is the jobs number from friday, but part of it has to be this chaos in the republican party. you still have four guys who are in this race. >> yes. and i think the weakness that romney is showing is one factor in that. the lift that the president is getting from improving economic news is another part of that. and barack obama is kicking full bore into campaign gear. we saw his announcement yesterday that he and his surrogates are going to encourage their donors to give to the super pac. which has been lagging throughout 2011. they were dwarfed by the amount of money that republican super pacs were raising. but the fact that that money wasn't coming in over the transom led the white house to say, okay, we're embracing this process. we have been decrying the influence of super pacs and the citizens united decision. but that is the game that we've got and we're going to play. they're going to play aggressively. and the odds for barack obama certainly looking much better tha
. >> obama's rates have soared likely that he gets re-elected. part of that is the jobs number from friday, but part of it has to be this chaos in the republican party. you still have four guys who are in this race. >> yes. and i think the weakness that romney is showing is one factor in that. the lift that the president is getting from improving economic news is another part of that. and barack obama is kicking full bore into campaign gear. we saw his announcement yesterday that he...
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the election is bearing on all of that. i do think that's true. i think in a broader sense what that will do is determine the future path of this country and whether we are going to be able to have people go btd seeking opportunity in this country. >> the flip side is when you can either look at times when the government has tried to do things or look at total different systems and where we have seen when it is state run and there is no profit incentive. you look at the way medicare is doled out by the federal government. there is no accountability. to have our capital more of it residing in a place where no one is watching a store, amtrak or the post office. name any government agency with no accountability and no reason to earn a profit. there is waste but political reasoning that comes in. >> i am a fan of private equity. there are times when private equity and this is not a campaign against romney at all. there are times when it doesn't work. there are times when the companies suck money out of the company. it does happen. we are looking at th
the election is bearing on all of that. i do think that's true. i think in a broader sense what that will do is determine the future path of this country and whether we are going to be able to have people go btd seeking opportunity in this country. >> the flip side is when you can either look at times when the government has tried to do things or look at total different systems and where we have seen when it is state run and there is no profit incentive. you look at the way medicare is...
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this is the way candidates run an election. whatever will play at the time, you need to get elected to do -- >> but it was like when austan goolsbee said the thing about canada. >> you know it's true, but you just don't say it. i don't think it was a big mistake really. >> joe, the same mistake or the same statement has a different impact on different kinds of candidates. if somebody working for ronald reagan had said something like that, it wookt have the impact because reagan had an image for steadfast conservatism. if you're mitt romney and you've been battling your whole career, political career, against the idea that you're very malleable and flexible, that is the wrong image to reinforce something like that. >> he was running against ted kennedy when he was tack to go t tacking to the left. so i can kind of understand that. >> right, but what i'm saying is that, and you appreciate this, too, i know, but this is the underlying afrgt that both gingrich and santorum have been making. even though everyone knows that people ru
this is the way candidates run an election. whatever will play at the time, you need to get elected to do -- >> but it was like when austan goolsbee said the thing about canada. >> you know it's true, but you just don't say it. i don't think it was a big mistake really. >> joe, the same mistake or the same statement has a different impact on different kinds of candidates. if somebody working for ronald reagan had said something like that, it wookt have the impact because...
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feels much better in front of the election, whether it will feel much better after the election is another question. >> sir smartin, i was looking a the numbers you put out, you spent $400 million in 2000 or you're planning to, spent $400 million with facebook in 2012. >> yes. >> double what you spent last year. >> yes. >> you spent $1.6 billion with google last year. >> right. >> how much will you spend with google next year? >> well, for 2012 we're targeting about $2 billion, maybe even a little bit north of that, and with facebook, we'd like to double up from 200 million to 400 million. with facebook because of our investment and buddy media, the platform for facebook and works with ten of the top ten advisers work through buddy medias aa platform inter facebook, it gives us an advantage of working with clients. the answer to your question, andrew and joe, is that we're going to see i think a significant increase in our engagement with facebook, but not at the level yet that we see with google. >> but do you see a day, and this goes to valuation on whatever you think this facebook ipo i
feels much better in front of the election, whether it will feel much better after the election is another question. >> sir smartin, i was looking a the numbers you put out, you spent $400 million in 2000 or you're planning to, spent $400 million with facebook in 2012. >> yes. >> double what you spent last year. >> yes. >> you spent $1.6 billion with google last year. >> right. >> how much will you spend with google next year? >> well, for 2012...
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>> do you think he's more electable than newt gingrich? we'll have kelly anne conway, one of his advisers, by the time she gets through with us we all may say he's a better candidate. >> sounds after $1 million in florida romney made newt unelectable in florida. >> we'll see what happens in the southern states. one thing you do know about is wisconsin and i want to, i watch what's happening with scott walker and we've had him on. we get mail when we have him on, the vitriol in the mail that we get, this is a huge election, i just want to show you "the journal" wrote about it on saturday, we'll go through a couple of these things here because it's worthwhile. "wall street journal" it's the most important non-presidential election of the decade. the evidence is mounting that mr. walker hasn't brought economic armageddon but financial stability. last year's $3 billion deficit is now a $3 hundred million surplus and it was accomplished without new taxes that unions favored." the next thing, a survey of major business owners, when he was electe
>> do you think he's more electable than newt gingrich? we'll have kelly anne conway, one of his advisers, by the time she gets through with us we all may say he's a better candidate. >> sounds after $1 million in florida romney made newt unelectable in florida. >> we'll see what happens in the southern states. one thing you do know about is wisconsin and i want to, i watch what's happening with scott walker and we've had him on. we get mail when we have him on, the vitriol in...
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ambassador we have a major election coming up in france and if prance elects a socialist leader, is france going to continue to be a constructive player in this effort to deliver austerity as you call it to the various economies around -- and countries around europe? >> as we know we are democracies and expect democracy, we can have changes of government, changes of president, we have had that in the past but if i look back to the history of the union there is a constant commitment of 0 our leaders to the european project with new answers here and there and being a french word. >> it's a nuance to have a socialist replace a conservative. that's a large nuance. >> we have that in europe. we have had that in europe. if you look at the last couple of years, there has been a lot of rotation of political families in europe and you don't see a big change in terms of the guidance, of where we want to go. we will wait and see, of course. we have to respect the will of the french people and we certainly will do so. so the new leader, the present one or a new one, will be involved and committed, i'm
ambassador we have a major election coming up in france and if prance elects a socialist leader, is france going to continue to be a constructive player in this effort to deliver austerity as you call it to the various economies around -- and countries around europe? >> as we know we are democracies and expect democracy, we can have changes of government, changes of president, we have had that in the past but if i look back to the history of the union there is a constant commitment of 0...